

OK that’s a fair observation. Honestly my naive guess would be that they simply do not optimize mainline gpt models for the kind of use case you generally have on Api (tool use, multi-step actions, etc…). They need it to be a perky every day assistant not necessarily a reliable worker. Already on gpt-4 i found it extremely mediocre compared to the Claude models of the same time.
I think that’s a more likely explanation than model collapse which is a really drastic phenomenon. A collapsed model will not just fail tasks at a higher rate, it will spit garbled text and go completely off the rails, which would be way more noticeable. It would also be weird that Claude models keep getting better and better while they’re probably fed roughly the same diet of synthetic data.


That’s an excellent point! On that topic I recently listened to an interview of the founder of EleutherAI, who focuses on training small language models. She said they were able to train a 1B parameters reasoning model with 50K Wikipedia articles and carefully curated RL traces. The thing could run in your smartphone and is at parity with much larger models trained on trillions of tokens.
She also scoffed at Common Crawl and said it contained mostly cookies and porn. She had a kind of attitude like “no wonder the big labs need to slurp trillions of tokens when the tokens are such low quality”. Very interesting approach, if you understand french I can only recommend the interview.